Sunday, February 15, 2009

Black swan takedown

Via Andrew Gelman's wonderful blog, a link to an excellent review of Taleb's Black Swan by legendary Bayesian statistician Dennis Lindley (you don't have to be a mathematician to follow this):

http://www3.interscience.wiley.com/cgi-bin/fulltext/119424936/PDFSTART?CRETRY=1&SRETRY=0

My feeling from reading Taleb and seeing him speak is that although he thinks he has found some huge flaw in probability (his hubris really is breathtaking), his real beef is not with probability or statistics but with finance. His critique is really one of conflicts of interest, perverse incentives and so on: he is talking about political economy, not mathematics.

And from that perspective, he's quite right. Building bogus models and making nonsense predictions pays pretty well (and continues to do so), so it's really just another case for that Upton Sinclair quote I use too much: "It is difficult to get a man to understand something when his job depends on not understanding it.

2 comments:

Liz said...

There is therefore no need to invest in a fax machine, spend on maintenance and keep buying consumables. Spending a little on a monthly basis can take your business to new heights. Fortunately, it's good to know that there are numerous trustworthy and decent faxes-less online loan corporations in the market that can provide you with the funds on temporary basis. More importantly, online fax services are now as flexible as traditional fax machines, if not more so. Our desktops and laptops with Internet connections are coming to the forefront and transforming into new age fax machines. Here are a few easy steps you can take to determine whether or not to call a technician. They will be the one to give you your own unique fax number that you can give out to your clients. Fax Paper

Anonymous said...

Emu Boots sale approximately 50%, and in the event you pay for just two couples of uk uggs, many surplus treats will be offered.

5L models in the "Iridescence" allowance box, despite well-designed
counterfeit bright Jiuzun base, so the cut apparent just appropriate
bright reflects "Iridescence" the cradle of the neon, for the
account of Hennessy cheap ugg boots Salon goes towards the a lots of admirable style.
Regardless of the items your first choice is, UGG Classic Short you will get in the UGG
boot.

Also visit my web site ... nihonebaggukochi.com