Thursday, March 26, 2009

Why the culture of the financial sector has to change

I want to say a little about business and cultural norms in the financial sector, how they affect tangible outcomes we all care about, and why they need to change. Norms are inherently less tangible than items on balance sheets, so it can be hard to see the role they play. I want to focus on norms in the financial sector, but to bring them out of the background I’ll start with a comparison to another field.

Doctors and bankers are alike in that they can inflict enormous damage by doing a bad job, doctors with a flick of the scalpel, bankers with a click of the mouse. Both are therefore subject to regulation which tries to trade-off costs of enforcement against risk of damage. But there’s a huge difference in the way doctors and bankers view their work.

Doctors, for the most part, care very deeply about the social impact of their work. Their ethos is one of wanting to do a good job for its own sake. Some make a lot of money, others do well but are not super-rich (this is the typical case in Europe), but from day one at medical school, the ethos is pretty evident. In contrast, bankers tend not to care - or sometimes even think about - the social impact of their work. It is very clearly a fundamentally different ethos. I do not want to idealize doctors - there are clearly some real exceptions - but only to put bankers alongside them to bring out some of the differences in culture.

You can see this difference in culture play out on the supply side of the labour market. Doctors are usually smart, hard-working people who could do well in other areas, but in most countries they have to go through a very long and genuinely tough training phase before they earn really good money (and in many countries the money isn’t even that great). Yet this doesn’t seem to deter applicants: medical schools can almost everywhere afford to be highly selective. This is because medical school applicants are, for the most part, people who actually want to make ill people better: that is, they have a sense of mission. In some sense, the “delayed gratification” acts as a filter: if you don’t care about the mission, you’ll find it hard to make it through to the latter, more lucrative stage of the medical career.

It’s not just medicine where there is a sense of mission, an ethos in which substantive social impact means something. Think of engineers, teachers, technology innovators. People who start tech firms want to get rich, sure (who doesn’t?) but a big part of their motivation is a desire to develop products that are widely used and make things better for people. (In open source you have the extreme case of people – often highly skilled – who care mostly about impact, not earnings.) Analogous to the delayed gratification in medicine is the high risk and opportunity cost of getting involved in a start up. If you’re finishing CS grad school, and have a bright idea, at that point in time it’s by no means clear that pursuing it will make you a millionaire. Yet to chase the dream you may have to pass up on other opportunities (e.g. a steady job). It’s a high risk, high reward choice. Note also that in technology (as in music or sports) a long-running passion for the job is almost a pre-requisite for doing well; in this sense the opportunity costs kick in as early as high school, or even primary school.

In fact, if you look across the economy, it’s hard to find another line of work that offers high rewards as quickly and with as little risk as finance. If delayed rewards in medicine and high risk in technology act as a filter, selecting the passionate over the merely greedy, the quick riches and relatively low risk of finance perhaps act in the opposite manner, selecting for people who simply want to become wealthy as quickly as possible. This view certainly accords with anecdotal evidence. Entrants into finance are often very smart and ambitious, but I would argue that many do not really care very much about anything other than making money and certain positional concerns (i.e. doing well relative to their peers). This is a stark contrast with most other “elite” fields, where money and rank matter, but so does mission.

We can extend this analysis in time and across people by looking at how norms evolve in groups. When groups of like-minded people get together, they tend to reinforce their initial views. So if you like science at high school, four years with like-minded peers at Caltech may take your passion to another level. This effect of reinforcement by clustering can work for good or evil: it helps us all to put wannabe tech innovators together in CS departments and places like Silicon Valley, because they spur each other on in mostly a good way. But it can work against us too: think of criminal gangs, or extremist political groups.

My feeling is that at present because finance offers high rewards with low risk but does not emphasize social value, it attracts a disproportionate number of people who are smart and competitive but who lack a real mission. Note that I am not saying financial activity does not or cannot have social value, only that at present this is not something that is very much emphasized or thought about in the sector.

Norms are intangible, but they have very tangible economic consequences. Enforcement alone is a costly and crude tool: if you had to police everyone all the time, many activities would no longer be wealth creating, net of enforcement costs. In this sense, productivity is a function of both norms and enforcement: if you have good norms, you can get away with less enforcement, but if you have bad norms, you’re better off with strong enforcement (but will do less well overall). The upshot of this is that improved norms can have enormous benefits in terms of concrete wealth creation.

Even a year ago, I think many outside the financial sector (and not a few inside it) would have recognized at least a kernel of truth in this analysis of its norms and ethos. But norms being as intangible as they are, any concerns would not have made it as far as impacting policy. But the events of the last few months have shown us that we ignore bad norms at our peril.

We are in a situation where bad norms in one systemically important sector have brought us almost to the brink. A short-term analysis of the crisis has to take bad norms as given, and construct tough regulation and enforcement regimes which keep the system stable despite its poor ethos. But such stability comes at a price. First, the level of enforcement required for stability will be difficult to achieve and sustain. Second, if the mindset of the sector does not change it will only be a matter of time before enforcement is undermined, by regulatory capture, lobbying, corruption etc. Only a change of norms can reduce this tension, by re-aligning the motives of agents in the financial sector and the society that they supposedly serve. Changing norms is hard, but not impossible. Now is the time to start.

919 comments:

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Eidolon said...

This is a fascinating and welcome dialogue. I confess as I watched how actively all levels of our government and media circus postured in outrage at the AIG bonuses, what a drop in the bucket is $170M compared to the massive amounts of money professional sports teams hemorrhage for their players. The same argument for retention applies in that case, and certainly it could be argued that sport is less essential to societal function. So I'm interested particularly in the subjective ways we, as a society, gauge the acceptability of an ascribed monetary value as comensation for a service.

arnold kling said...

I have suggested that if I were the systemic regulator, the one variable that I would change is the gender of the CEO's of systemically important financial firms. I think that is the surest way to change the norms in that sector.

I wish I had an equally simple solution for changing the norms of the political class.

Anonymous said...

Instant gratificatoin type profits and what is best for long term gains of the company are very clearly two diffrent things in my mind. Look to the Japanese for examples of businesses that do things for the long term results for the companies,; like the Toyota Prius or Honda hydrogen powered car. These cars are not profitable now, but may help position the company for the long term. Hard to find those qualities in the U.S. companies from my experience. It shows up everywhere not in just finance, but more so in finance.
Mark

rwcg said...

I hope you'll indulge my comment as I am in the somewhat unique (perhaps even weird) position of having worked in both fields. In another life I worked and rubbed elbows with doctors and nurses, in hospitals and clinics. Yet presently I work in an investment bank, around analysts and traders and business heads and the rest.

Your characterization here no doubt could be easily supplied with anecdotes to back it up (in particular, some of the b**tards currently appearing in headlines in one field but not the other - a skewed sample, you must acknowledge) but as a significant effect it doesn't really ring true to me.

First, on the supposed relative 'filtering' of the training phase: While medical school (plus internship plus residency, if you are counting those) is temporally long, the rewards that come at the end are fairly high-probability. They may be 'delaying gratification' but they're pretty certain the gratification will be there when they get there; compare this to, oh, someone who goes to grad school to do a PhD in, say, History and the med students don't look nearly so selfless or socially-caring.

Moreover, there are non-monetary benefits of taking this path that I believe you are neglecting; the admiration of others, and of their parents - a form of capital that accrues and can be cashed in, in a sense, the entire time. The idea that the med school path, because of its length, necessarily filters for selflessness doesn't quite survive close scrutiny to me. If you just think back to all the people you knew in college - surely not all saints, or selfless, or socially conscious - who were gunning for med school (in a large % of cases solely due to some form of spurring/goading from their parents) I suspect you could probably easily hit upon numerous examples to convince you of this. The fact is that medicine's rewards to come are well known to all and (above at least a certain minimum) fairly bankable all the while one is training for it. Speaking loosely, a guy in med school may not be making such-and-such money yet, in a secure and respected job, but he probably will be...and the chicks surely know it.

Meanwhile, a large number of people in finance have MBAs, PhDs or other advanced degrees which (while I don't necessarily wish to defend the value/worth of all those degrees equally per se) as a simple matter of time investment/sacrifice may take no less time or perhaps even far more time than M.D.'s. Moreover, for every overworked resident you can point to grinding through their (relatively) low-paid post-school training period (but: compare them to postdocs!), one can find a young investment banker/trading assistant/analyst/whatever (depending on the role) in essentially an analogously crappy station in his career: 80+ hour weeks, grinding through grunt work, fetching coffee/lunch for everyone while getting yelled at and grinning/bearing it, etc. People don't jump from school to running a trading desk or high net worth portfolio any more than fresh MDs are put in charge of a hospital radiation oncology clinic. Moreover, earning a fortune in finance is far from a sure thing for the kid just starting out. I suppose this fact was a bit masked during bubble years but the idea of finance as a 'sure thing', 'low risk high reward' is untenable. Even before the crisis, you had this crazy compensation system evolve wherein an insane fraction of your salary was held from you till year-end as a secretively-calculated 'bonus' (one that could be yanked away in any given year - can this happen to supposedly riskier-path, delayed-gratification doctors?). Firings (trade gone bad) and layoffs (gotta get head-count down!) are a constant risk, which is far far less the case for doctors. Tell a 24-year-old laid-off middle-office dude who lives in a studio apartment that finance is 'low risk high reward'...

You're going to say "yeah, but they all got predictably huge bonuses every year" - but that was the bubble, wasn't it? Far less true now, obviously.

I have found, unsurprisingly, that both doctors and finance types are people. People come in a wide variety of flavors and yes, some are money-grubbing. This is true in both fields. I have known money-grubbing, self-centered, egotistical, cynical, misanthropic doctors. To be sure, even these were for the most part professional, talented doctors who did indeed care about doing the job right - but also cared about their house(s) values, their portfolios, and (sometimes) how hot their patients' daughters were.

Meanwhile, I have also known people in finance who don't make nearly as much or live nearly as well as everyone seems to assume yet who are generous to a fault, highly decent people, and indeed, socially conscious.

(And all this goes vice versa, of course.)

A final thought about the idea that bankers 'tend not to care - or sometimes even think about - the social impact of their work'. I don't know what or how many people this observation/caricature/? is based on, but I have observed a somewhat different and orthogonal dynamic: bankers who are actually highly conscious of the social impact of their work, but just (in my opinion) diagnose it incorrectly.

For example, surely it would be easy to find numerous cases of bankers from the past decade or so who thought - and stated openly as a motivation! - they were doing a good thing for society (while, indeed, simultaneously getting rich) in relaxing lending standards, broadening lending to subprime borrowers, inventing new mortgage 'products' such as the Option-ARM, etc. So far from your idea that bankers 'tend not to care or even think about' their social impact, we've just gone through a decade of bankers only too happy to spout off about the wonderfully positive social impact they thought they were making.

Other specific examples come to mind: all the people involved in 'carbon trading' and similar businesses that sprout up around certain regulations probably consider themselves highly socially-conscious and believe that what they are doing is good for society. Some of the folks who did things like sold swaptions to school districts and CDOs to Icelandic towns probably told themselves they were being 'innovative' and helping expand access to funding & risk-management for cash-strained risk-averse schools and cities and unions and pensions and (etc; though admittedly most of 'em probably knew that was bogus). Or how about all the people who work at Freddie/Fannie, organizations with the expressly stated purpose of 'promoting affordable housing' (whether or not that's what they actually end up doing). I'd bet, and ex-Freddie folks I've known bear this out, that many of those people would take little prompting indeed to bring up the 'social impact' of what they are doing and how 'important' is the mission of 'promoting affordable housing'.

More abstractly and generally, there is the standard economic notion that in seeking to find profitable uses for capital, financiers aid society in allocating resources more efficiently. This is one I actually even kinda buy (if done right..). So the prospect of getting rich is a potent motive, to be sure, but there are plenty thoughts and stories vis-a-vis the 'social impact' one is having in doing so that people tell themselves along the way. For all I know it could be that bankers tend to think about 'social impact' more than other fields, if only for reasons of salving their conscience.

In my view the real problem is not so much a failure to think about their social impact but, more precisely, bad ideas about what that social impact will be. In some cases (e.g. subprime, asset-backed CDOs) perhaps these bad ideas take hold because they function as rationalizations for short-term high-profit grabs with huge long-term downside risk, and that would support what you are saying - the need for norms to change. But on a more basic level, I would say that what the broad financial sector really needs is a more sound understanding of, well, economics. Meanwhile, since I believe government & regulations played a huge role in ginning up this crisis (most of the financial innovations people blame for causing the problems are various forms of reg-arbs, of gaming the regulatory system), government could do with a culture-change of its own. But that's another topic I suppose....

M.G. said...

There was an interesting article about "Why money messes with your mind" at http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg20127001.200-why-money-messes-with-your-mind.html?full=true.

It's apparent that the money culture messes up in the minds of people working in finance and in some degree in economics far less in the doctors' ones (unless their objective is to make money...). It's about behavioral rules - social norms versus market norms. If the latter prevail you tend to screw the economy up...

Ellen1910 said...

Not to criticize rwcg's thoughtful comment, but it may be salutary to remember Upton Sinclair's remark:

It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends upon his not understanding it.

beezer said...

"For all I know it could be that bankers tend to think about 'social impact' more than other fields, if only for reasons of salving their conscience." rwcg writes.

Not much of an endorsement for bankers' social sensitivity.

Not having been in the medical field, but having been in the securities field, I can confidently say the primary, and in most cases the sole, motivation is to do a deal and make money.

Raising the financing for a coal plant or nuke, or hospital are all the same in this viewpoint. That's because they are the same when it comes to finance.

Most definitely the norms they need a changing.

wjd123 said...

Making it easier for people to internalize norms



Emile Durkheim didn't believe that "human nature" was a single phenomenon that one could find in nature. In the Evolution of Educational Thought he wrote that it was "a construct of the human mind and an arbitrary construct at that; for we have absolutely no means of saying what it consists of, how it is constituted, or where it begins or ends." He believed at the minimum there were as many human natures as there were societies.



Accepting that Durkheim is still mainly correct, we would look in a different direction to changing behavior: change society.



There is no reason to say everyone wants to get rich other than he or she is a product of the society they live in, or even a product of the sphere of society they live in.



It's my contention that when you live in a society that measures success by wealth it hard for social consciousness to develop in the poor and the rich. The poor can't afford social norms, the rich can't be bothered with them.



The solution is to bind people to the society they live in and makes it possible for them to maximize their potential instead of breaking off into sociopathic sub-cultures. Our main cultures glorification of wealth encourages sociopaths.



Why should we all feel we want to be rich? What about living in a society where the desire to get rich is mitigated by the desire to develop ones talents, raise a family, and put food on the table.



That's hard to do in a society where there are huge differences in wealth. In such a society the social/social human being matrix will be out of kilter. It's not a very efficient way of developing human, institutional, and intellectual capital.



Let's make progressive taxation progressive to the point where becoming rich isn't such a huge motivation in our society.



I don't get angry when someone who is doing a job I couldn't do is making five or six times more than I'm making. When they are making 400 times what I'm making it effects the way I feel.



After all a person doing a job that fulfills their talent isn't going to trade his or her job for one that they can walk through, or one that requires hard physical labor if they don't get a really big difference in pay. They will feel lucky they have the job they have. If society wants to induce them to use their talents above and beyond the call of duty then the esteem of their peers is as good as millions of dollars. It's all relative.



So lets get busy changing the cultural ethos of the society we live in. We can start by getting rid of this worship of great wealth by seeing that there is no great wealth to worship. That would help get people out of sub-cultures that are sociopathic and into to a main culture that doesn't encourage the sociopathic.

Anonymous said...

Permit me to post an extreme synopsis of your post:

Big swinging dicks are sociopaths.

And we've constructed a system that put the fate of the world economy in the hands of the BSDs. Funnily enough, it didn't turn out that great. Every time people try and explain this fiasco and talk about global imbalances, securitization, inattentive central bankers, expectations of perpetual increases in housing prices, etc., I think, BULLSHIT. None of that matters. They're all results, not causes. The only cause is that we let the money-men run amok, and when you do that, they will bring things crashing down as they pursue their own enrichment. It's like the frog that gives the scorpion a ride across the river and then gets stung. The money men stung us because that's what they do. And unlike the frog, they won't even die, they'll just retire in luxury. They're parasites. They loot when given the chance and boy did we give them a chance.

Remember, finance creates no value. Financiers create nothing, not a car, a song, not a painting, not a building, not a video game. They don't cut your hair, clean your house, harvest wheat, DJ your wedding or heal the sick. They create no real goods or services. They're a necessary evil because they let the money that does enable all those things move around efficiently (and yes, that efficiency has some value). But never, ever, give the parasites of finance the keys to the kingdom or they will ruin it.

Anonymous said...

To counter rcwg, let me provide my own view as someone who has worked in banking for the past 10 years.

I do see the cultural issues being an essential part of the issue. I've worked as a compliance officer in both large and small banks, including some who have been wrapped up in this crisis, and am now with a mid-sized credit union.

The issue stems less from the lack of mission than it does from the clarity of the mission. In health care, the goal is always to promote good health, and it is relatively easy to ask the patient if they're feeling better, and this can be confirmed with empirical testing whose results are relatively unequivocal.

In banking, the purported "mission" that banks use to lure customers is often to promote good financial "health". Yet when one asks the patient whether they're "feeling better", their answer cannot be empirically tested, and is very often based on an unhealthy desire for credit - a desire which plays into the banker's pocketbook very neatly.

The argument that neither doctors nor bankers will succeed in the long term if they get into the habit of killing their patients loses force when one digs into the question of whether the "patient" may be more responsible for their death.

But at the least, the medical profession is called upon to certify the death and provide an explanation of the cause.

Bankers, on the other hand, do not have such requirements...

Anonymous said...

To me, rwcg's well written comments ring much more true than the original article.
I work in Finance, but as a programmer who doesn't make huge bucks.
I have many friends and relatives who are doctors.
The people I know, including myself, see medicine as the low-risk, high-reward, high-prestige profession. That is precisely the reason parents goad their children to become doctors (my wife and I are doing t hat with our college sophomore). It has nothing to with altruism, something to do with being perceived as altruistic by others and a lot to do with being financially well off.

Compulsive Theorist said...

Thanks for the comments.
I just wanted to pick up on a point raised by rwcg (and then by others) about the Doctor/banker comparison.

I'm writing from the UK, where doctors are, on the whole, far les well paid than in the US (and this was even more true until recently). For example, when I finished a first, undergraduate degree, it was not difficult to find multiple offers in finance which all paid more than a good friend - who is a top-class eye surgeon - makes now, after many years of training. His salary will increase in future, but you see my point. At least in the UK, finance in uniquely well paid: you can earn as much as a senior doctor but very much more quickly and without having to be anywhere near as strong academically. So if you're reading this in the US, perhaps it would help to substitute doctor with a different profession? My general point is simply that super-high wages distort incentives.

Interestingly - and purely anecdotally - while the US medical sector is in many ways very innovative, there are also many reports of dubious practices, from conflicts of interest to downright corruption. To some extent this would support the general thesis that excessively high wages may draw in people with the wrong motivation etc.

Finally, see Simon Johnson's recent piece in the Atlantic for a plot of relative wages in finance in the US, in recent years this has shot up to unprecedented levels.

rwcg said...

Ellen1910 cites Sinclair:

It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends upon his not understanding it.

No argument from me, indeed I specifically noted the likelihood that folks in banking have an incentive to view their 'social impact' through rose-colored glasses due to the rewards. But this still goes more to them having bad ideas about what are the social impact of actions than them not thinking/caring about that social impact, as the post above claims.

beezer writes:

Not much of an endorsement for bankers' social sensitivity.

Nor was it intended to be! The intent was simply as a corrective to the caricatures presented in the original post (and evidently believed by some of its readers whose knowledge of investment banking as far as I can tell appears to come exclusively from reading Liar's Poker) that compared the medical field hugely favorably to the finance field on the basis of very little in the way of actual evidence. My contention is not that bankers are hugely 'socially sensitive' (why should they have to surpass such a bar in the first place? who else does?) so much as that the gap in 'social sensitivity' between they, and MDs, is not hugely apparent to me.

Of course the motivation in finance is to make money. The motivation in jobs is to make money (why go to a "job" at all??). It is the implication that this is somehow not nearly so much of a motivation in medicine that I dispute. The gap is simply not so wide as that IMHO. But hey, that's just my impression, from having worked with both.

Anonymous 5:44

[mission]
In health care, the goal is always to promote good health, and it is relatively easy to ask the patient if they're feeling better, and this can be confirmed with empirical testing whose results are relatively unequivocal.


There's more than a little truth to this point. But I would add a slight caveat however that what makes patients 'better' is not always so clear-cut as you make it out to be (it's certainly not merely asking them 'do you feel better'). Does the patient really need that extra diagnostic test? Should he be given another CT scan (with the extra rads of exposure that goes along with it)? What if the test results are unclear, do you treat him anyway 'just in case' (a big issue in certain diseases that are diagnosed 'clinically', i.e. 'let's treat this person as if they have it even though we're not sure...')? What about side effects to all these treatments and tests? And do you use treatment X or treatment Y, which may differ in their effectiveness/side effects/etc depending on which paper you read or school of thought you subscribe to?

These questions can all be wrapped up in and influenced by unrelated-to-the-mission things like protecting oneself from lawsuits, how insurance/Medicare compensation plays out, and which med school one went to (thus, which 'traditions'/rules of thumb one learned and internalized). Yes, the mission 'make the patient better' is clear - but doctors are still susceptible to bad ideas in how to achieve their mission - just as bankers can be.

In banking, the purported "mission" that banks use to lure customers is often to promote good financial "health". Yet when one asks the patient whether they're "feeling better", their answer cannot be empirically tested, and is very often based on an unhealthy desire for credit - a desire which plays into the banker's pocketbook very neatly.

Hmm. Unless I misunderstand, I reckon that financial 'health' is a bit more easily 'tested' than you make it out to be here (there is always the bottom line number, after all; it's in the risks that errors, and biases, easily creep in - but nobody's denying that). Meanwhile, though, as I just stated, neither is actual health necessarily as straightforward.

Lest I be misunderstood, however I certainly don't mean all this to be a ringing defense of the greatness of financiers over doctors or some such thing. Far from it! It's just that the original post struck me as based on, well, easy caricature rather than real-life observation or data. The reality is far more complex; people who work in investment banking and finance are people. Perhaps after all is said and done it's true that 'their culture needs to change', but this is presumably far easier to say when one's knowledge of that 'culture' is based on stereotype, high-profile news stories, and of course, Liar's Poker.

Rogi H'Civestay said...

Thanks for the great (original) post. Perhaps, the main question can be formulated as: "Is it possible to create an altruistic or even neutral, "artistic" type culture (similar to science or engineering) in the finance industry? " In my opinion - "absolutely impossible", because the purpose of any non-government finance business is not to make the clients richer, but to enrich the owners. The public good (if any) comes mostly by accident. This is the core difference between medicine, science etc and any "practical" business - especially financial. In terms of intrinsic goals, there is more commonality between a financial business and a gang of robbers, than between them and medical professionals. This, of course, does not mean that there are no deviants in both fields. Perhaps, this analogy also supports the author's thesis on the a priory "filtering" of the people suitable to work in either industry.

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